January home sales and price report

California home sales kick off year higher in January, marking best start in three years

- Existing, single-family home sales totaled 383,670 in January on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 5.4 percent from December and up 8.8 percent from January 2015.

- January’s statewide median home price was $468,330, down 4.3 percent from December and up 9.2 percent from January 2015.

- Year-over-year sales increased in the state’s major regions, including Southern California (6.5 percent), San Francisco Bay Area (6.8 percent), and with the Central Valley posting the largest annual gain of 11.8 percent.

LOS ANGELES (Feb. 17) – California existing home sales posted their best January performance in three years as year-over-year sales recovered from delayed escrow closings late last year caused by new loan disclosure rules, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 383,670 units in January, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLS's statewide. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2016 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year.  It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The January figure was down 5.4 percent from the revised 405,760 level in December and up 8.8 percent compared with home sales in January 2015 of a revised 352,640. The January 2016 sales level was the highest since January 2013, when an annualized 421,780 homes were sold.

“While home sales increased year over year in January, they decreased minimally on a monthly basis, primarily due to a stronger than usual sales gain in December 2015, when the backlog of mortgage approvals caused by new loan disclosure rules were carried over from November,” said C.A.R. President Pat “Ziggy” Zicarelli. “Looking ahead, the slowdown should be a transitory interruption to an otherwise positive trend.”

The median price of an existing, single-family detached California home fell 4.3 percent in January to $468,330 from $489,310 in December. January’s median price was 9.2 percent higher than the revised $428,980 recorded in January 2015. The median sales price is the point at which half of homes sold for more and half sold for less; it is influenced by the types of homes selling as well as a general change in values. The year-to-year price gain was the largest since May 2014 and marks the fifth consecutive month of home price acceleration, reflecting an ongoing shift in sales activity toward higher-priced properties.

“The fundamentals underlying the demand for housing fueled a healthy start to 2016,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “The volatility in the equity market in the last few weeks, coupled with increasing uncertainty about the impact on economic growth, however, may lead potential home buyers and sellers to take a “wait and see” approach, which could erode housing market activity in the upcoming months.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s January 2016 resale housing report include:

• The number of active listings increased for the first time in five months, increasing 3.1 percent from December on a statewide basis. At the regional level, total active listings increased from the previous month in Southern California (5.3 percent), and the San Francisco Bay Area (8 percent), but declined slightly in the Central Valley (1.6 percent).

• C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index rose to 4.3 months in January from 2.8 months in December, primarily due to slower sales and an increase in active listings. The index stood at 4.9 months in January 2015. The index indicates the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. A six- to seven-month supply is considered typical in a normal market.

• The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home increased in January to 44.5 days, compared with 39.5 days in December and 49.5 days in January 2015.

• According to C.A.R.’s sales-to-list price ratio*, properties are generally selling below the list price, except in the San Francisco Bay Area, where a lack of homes for sale is pushing sales prices higher than original asking prices.  The statewide measure suggests that homes sold at a median of 97.9 percent of the list price in January, up slightly from 97.1 percent at the same time last year. The Bay Area is the only region where homes are selling above original list prices due to constrained supply with a ratio of 100.3 percent in January, up from 100 percent a year ago.

• The average price per square foot** for an existing, single-family home was $227 in January 2016, down from $230 in December and up from $212 in January 2015. 

• San Francisco continued to have the highest price per square foot in January at $723/sq. ft., followed by San Mateo ($717/sq. ft.), and Santa Clara ($545/sq. ft.).  The three counties with the lowest price per square foot in January were Kings ($116/sq. ft.), Siskiyou ($117/sq. ft.), and Tehama ($119/sq. ft.).

• Mortgage rates dipped in January, with the 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaging 3.87 percent, down from 3.96 percent in December and up from 3.67 percent in January 2015, according to Freddie Mac.  Adjustable-mortgage interest rates also dipped, averaging 2.98 percent in January, down from 3.04 percent in December and up from 2.89 percent in January 2015.

Graphics (click links to open):

• January sales at-a-glance infographic.
• Calif. existing home sales historical.
• Share of sales by price range.
• Sales to active listings ratio by region.
• Sales to list price ratio.
• Price per square foot.

Note:  The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state, and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only.  County sales data are not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales.  Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home.  The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower-end or the upper-end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold.  The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.

*Sales-to-list price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions.  The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage.  A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.
   
**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property.  It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet.  C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 38 counties. 

Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with 185,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

January 2016 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

January-16	Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family Homes							Sales
State/Region/County	Jan-16	Dec-15		Jan-15		MTM% Chg	YTY% Chg	MTM% Chg	YTY% Chg
CA SFH (SAAR)	$468,330	$489,310		$428,980	r	-4.3%	9.2%	-5.4%	8.8%
CA Condo/Townhomes	$380,710	$394,070	r	$351,790	r	-3.4%	8.2%	-32.5%	1.4%
Los Angeles Metro Area	$432,080	$446,660		$395,200		-3.3%	9.3%	-28.1%	7.3%
Inland Empire	$291,920	$300,130		$267,070		-2.7%	9.3%	-23.1%	6.9%
S.F. Bay Area	$703,150	$728,950		$610,180	r	-3.5%	15.2%	-39.0%	6.8%
S.F. Bay Area
Alameda	$711,900	$738,790		$610,130	r	-3.6%	16.7%	-41.6%	2.1%
Contra-Costa	$499,550	$507,180		$442,440	r	-1.5%	12.9%	-38.2%	-2.2%
Marin	$955,360	$1,120,690		$982,140		-14.8%	-2.7%	-44.4%	5.9%
Napa	$610,000	$628,120		$500,000	r	-2.9%	22.0%	-22.8%	18.2%
San Francisco	$1,173,610	$1,215,620		$986,610		-3.5%	19.0%	-48.7%	6.3%
San Mateo	$1,077,500	$1,194,000		$1,012,500		-9.8%	6.4%	-37.9%	25.0%
Santa Clara	$895,000	$920,000		$815,000		-2.7%	9.8%	-39.6%	9.5%
Solano	$361,670	$356,640		$326,510		1.4%	10.8%	-36.7%	6.0%
Sonoma	$593,750	$563,320		$468,180		5.4%	26.8%	-34.5%	17.8%
Southern California
Los Angeles	$480,950	$502,750		$441,610		-4.3%	8.9%	-33.0%	5.2%
Orange	$704,950	$710,940		$674,340		-0.8%	4.5%	-24.6%	15.2%
Riverside	$333,370	$348,020		$306,060		-4.2%	8.9%	-23.8%	7.7%
San Bernardino	$234,460	$234,080		$206,660		0.2%	13.5%	-21.9%	5.7%
San Diego	$542,150	$548,080		$496,380		-1.1%	9.2%	-32.1%	2.9%
Ventura	$638,590	$601,910		$582,630		6.1%	9.6%	-32.0%	3.7%
Central Coast
Monterey	$500,000	$520,000	r	$420,000		-3.8%	19.0%	-19.0%	-3.6%
San Luis Obispo	$525,000	$548,440		$478,720		-4.3%	9.7%	-31.0%	-2.6%
Santa Barbara	$712,960	$555,000		$690,220		28.5%	3.3%	-20.9%	20.3%
Santa Cruz	$694,500	$703,940		$665,000		-1.3%	4.4%	-38.5%	1.1%
Central Valley
Fresno	$213,510	$223,370		$211,470		-4.4%	1.0%	-24.5%	19.6%
Glenn	$160,000	$180,000		$162,500		-11.1%	-1.5%	28.6%	-14.3%
Kern (Bakersfield)	$215,000	$215,000		$195,000		0.0%	10.3%	-17.0%	10.8%
Kings	$194,280	$202,000		$172,500		-3.8%	12.6%	-53.2%	0.0%
Madera	$222,730	$223,330		$245,000		-0.3%	-9.1%	-4.2%	24.3%
Merced	$192,000	$208,930		$168,750		-8.1%	13.8%	-23.4%	30.2%
Placer	$410,000	$391,960		$375,980		4.6%	9.0%	-32.8%	11.8%
Sacramento	$282,280	$297,600		$256,670		-5.1%	10.0%	-39.2%	4.6%
San Benito	$480,000	$452,500		$435,000		6.1%	10.3%	14.3%	37.1%
San Joaquin	$293,840	$287,250		$263,360		2.3%	11.6%	-21.5%	32.0%
Stanislaus	$244,550	$249,440		$230,790		-2.0%	6.0%	-34.1%	0.6%
Tulare	$193,750	$196,210		$173,330		-1.3%	11.8%	-42.9%	6.5%
Other Counties in California
Amador	$225,000	$275,000		$210,710		-18.2%	6.8%	-25.0%	30.4%
Butte	$260,580	$261,670		$231,730		-0.4%	12.4%	-26.5%	7.2%
Calaveras	$255,560	$272,060		$228,120	r	-6.1%	12.0%	-47.4%	-9.1%
Del Norte	$156,670	$194,000		$160,000	r	-19.2%	-2.1%	-9.5%	5.6%
El Dorado	$408,330	$409,800		$375,000		-0.4%	8.9%	-25.4%	14.0%
Humboldt	$248,080	$289,580		$263,890		-14.3%	-6.0%	-38.8%	10.9%
Lake	$236,760	$217,650		$163,330		8.8%	45.0%	-46.9%	6.3%
Mariposa	$287,500	$233,330		$268,750		23.2%	7.0%	50.0%	66.7%
Mendocino	$354,170	$352,500		$258,330		0.5%	37.1%	-52.5%	0.0%
Nevada	$350,000	$355,360		$339,290	r	-1.5%	3.2%	-38.6%	-24.4%
Plumas	$337,500	$283,330		$275,000	r	19.1%	22.7%	-5.0%	90.0%
Shasta	$229,310	$235,000		$216,130		-2.4%	6.1%	-37.8%	2.9%
Siskiyou	$197,500	$140,000		$195,000		41.1%	1.3%	-3.1%	24.0%
Sutter	$217,860	$241,070		$227,080		-9.6%	-4.1%	-14.8%	-1.9%
Tehama	$190,000	$186,000		$164,290	r	2.2%	15.6%	-61.2%	-38.7%
Tuolumne	$211,670	$236,760		$236,360		-10.6%	-10.4%	-24.0%	23.9%
Yolo	$360,420	$361,220		$307,500		-0.2%	17.2%	-35.8%	33.8%
Yuba	$207,350	$226,560		$204,170		-8.5%	1.6%	-13.7%	43.2%

r = revised

January 2016 County Unsold Inventory and Time on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

January-16	Unsold Inventory Index					Median Time on Market
State/Region/County	Jan-16	Dec-15		Jan-15		Jan-16	Dec-15		Jan-15
CA SFH (SAAR)	4.3	2.8		4.9	r	44.5	39.5		49.5
CA Condo/Townhomes	3.8	2.3		4.1	r	40.7	37.2		49.1
Los Angeles Metro Area	4.8	3.3		5.5		57.3	54.6		63.0
Inland Empire	5.7	4.1		6.4		61.9	57.3		67.5
S.F. Bay Area	2.4	1.4		2.6	r	28.1	25.9		29.5
S.F. Bay Area
Alameda	2.0	1.1		2.3	r	22.5	20.2		23.3
Contra-Costa	2.5	1.5		1.4	r	24.3	22.9		27.7
Marin	2.8	1.4		4.0		45.5	40.8		51.9
Napa	4.1	3.2		5.4		65.1	55.4		73.1
San Francisco	2.3	0.9		2.6		33.9	27.2		29.1
San Mateo	1.9	1.1		2.5		22.1	20.9		22.5
Santa Clara	1.9	1.0		2.3		23.6	23.2		25.4
Solano	3.4	2.1		4.2		50.0	44.8		50.5
Sonoma	3.2	2.1		3.9		65.6	55.0		63.8
Southern California
Los Angeles	4.3	2.8		4.9		51.2	48.5		54.8
Orange	4.1	2.8		5.1		64.2	66.0		71.9
Riverside	6.3	4.4		7.1		64.5	61.0		70.0
San Bernardino	4.8	3.5		5.4		57.0	51.9		63.5
San Diego	4.3	2.7		5.0		27.0	25.6		35.0
Ventura	4.8	3.0		5.2		72.2	61.1		72.6
Central Coast
Monterey	4.7	3.7		4.7		51.5	44.3		42.0
San Luis Obispo	5.1	3.3		5.0		43.4	42.3		37.9
Santa Barbara	4.9	3.8		5.4		51.4	54.1		54.9
Santa Cruz	2.8	1.8		3.9		38.6	32.0		46.0
Central Valley
Fresno	5.1	3.9		6.1		32.0	33.1		42.4
Glenn	3.1	4.7		2.7		24.7	31.0		82.8
Kern (Bakersfield)	4.7	3.5	r	4.8	r	41.0	37.0		42.0
Kings	6.1	2.6		6.6		31.0	27.7		50.3
Madera	7.8	7.8		9.5		78.4	56.8		58.2
Merced	4.7	3.5		6.6		55.5	38.6		48.6
Placer	3.5	2.1		4.7		27.5	28.9		42.7
Sacramento	3.0	1.7		3.9		26.6	24.8		34.2
San Benito	2.4	3.3		3.8		35.5	28.7		52.2
San Joaquin	3.1	2.3		4.6		28.9	26.2		39.3
Stanislaus	3.7	2.4		4.1		31.5	27.4		32.9
Tulare	6.4	3.3		6.3		43.3	37.8		49.7
Other Counties in California
Amador	6.3	4.4		7.4		91.0	56.4		115.2
Butte	3.9	2.9		4.7		55.7	42.0		50.5
Calaveras	8.1	4.4		8.9	r	86.8	74.1		48.1
Del Norte	6.7	6.1		8.6	r	122.5	122.3		126.3
El Dorado	4.7	3.6		6.0		53.8	55.0		79.9
Humboldt	4.9	2.9		7.5		41.2	39.5		56.8
Lake	6.8	3.4		6.9		82.3	95.1		103.4
Mariposa	6.1	9.3		12.0		98.3	125.8		68.3
Mendocino	10.2	4.6		10.2		112.8	77.3		123.7
Nevada	6.0	3.7		6.0		61.0	46.4		62.7
Plumas	10.0	10.4		25.8	r	132.8	130.7		131.9
Shasta	7.7	4.6		7.4		51.9	50.2		71.2	r
Siskiyou	7.3	7.0		12.8		78.4	75.5		122.1
Sutter	4.1	3.3		4.4		27.9	41.0		78.7
Tehama	9.0	3.1		5.5	r	82.8	53.2		54.6	r
Tuolumne	5.1	4.2		7.2		98.3	82.8		50.3
Yolo	3.0	1.9		4.3		31.5	25.1		45.5
Yuba	3.2	2.6		4.9		29.5	28.1		37.2

California pending home sales register annual increase in December

LOS ANGELES (Jan. 25) – Pending home sales in California continued to improve from a year ago with solid gains, which will position the market for a modest increase in home sales in 2016, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

In a separate report, California REALTORS® responding to C.A.R.’s December Market Pulse Survey saw a small decrease in the number of sales with multiple offers compared with November as well as a decrease in the number of offers received. Listing appointments remained stable, while floor calls and open house traffic were down, primarily reflecting seasonal factors. The Market Pulse Survey is a monthly online survey of more than 300 California REALTORS®, which measures data about their last closed transaction and sentiment about business activity in their market area for the previous month and the last year.

Pending home sales data:

• Statewide pending home sales remained strong in December on an annual basis, with the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* increasing 8.3 percent from 71.9 in December 2014 to 77.9 in December 2015, based on signed contracts. The annual increase was the smallest since January 2015.

• On a monthly basis, California pending home sales fell from November, primarily due to seasonal factors. The PHSI decreased 22.4 percent from an index of 100.4 in November to 77.9 in December.

• At the regional level, pending sales were higher on a year-over-year basis in all areas, with the Central Valley and San Francisco Bay Area regions increasing at a double-digit rate, while Southern California edged up in the low single-digits. All regions experienced a sharp month-to-month decline in pending sales.

• San Francisco Bay Area pending sales fell 36.4 percent from November to reach an index of 81.7 in December, down from November’s 128.4 and up 12.4 percent from December 2014’s 72.7 index.

• Pending home sales in Southern California decreased 19.3 percent from November to reach an index of 69 in December, down from November’s index of 85.5 and up 2.5 percent from an index of 67.4 a year ago.

• Central Valley pending sales fell from November to reach an index of 65.7, down 22.8 percent from November’s 85.1 index and up 12.9 percent from December 2014’s 58.2 index.

Equity and distressed housing market data:

• The share of equity sales – or non-distressed property sales – edged up in December and remained at the highest levels since the fall of 2007. Equity sales now make up 93.6 percent of all sales, up from 90.1 percent a year ago.

• The combined share of all distressed property sales (REOs and short sales) dipped in December to 6.4 percent of total sales and was down from 9.9 percent a year ago.

• Eighteen of the 44 counties that C.A.R. reports showed month-to-month decreases in their share of distressed sales, with San Mateo having the smallest share of distressed sales at 1.7 percent, followed by Santa Clara (1.8 percent), and Marin (2.2 percent). Tehama had the highest share of distressed sales at 20.4 percent, followed by Siskiyou (18.8 percent), and Lake (15.6 percent).

December REALTOR® Market Pulse Survey**:

• Nearly one in five homes (18 percent) closed above asking price in December, and 57 percent closed below asking price. One-fourth (25 percent) closed at asking price.

• For the one in five homes that sold above asking price, the premium paid over asking price edged up to an average of 9.2 percent, up from November’s 8.9 percent but down from 11 percent in December 2014.

• The 57 percent of homes that sold below asking price sold for an average of 13 percent below asking price in December, unchanged from November and a year ago.

• About two-thirds (65 percent) of properties received multiple offers in December, indicating the market remains competitive. Sixty-one percent of properties received multiple offers in December 2014.

• The average number of offers per property was 2.5 in December, down from 2.7 in November and 2.6 in December 2014.

• With home prices leveling off in recent months, more sellers are adjusting their listing price to become more in line with buyers’ expectations. About one-third (30 percent) of properties had price reductions in December, down from 31 percent a year ago.

• REALTOR® respondents reported that listing appointments remained stable, while floor calls and open house traffic were down, mostly due to seasonal factors.

• When asked what REALTORS®’ biggest concerns are, one in four (25 percent) said thin housing supplies, while 20 percent indicated declining housing affordability, and 14 percent stated over inflated home prices.

• REALTORS® were optimistic about next year’s housing market, with the vast majority (89 percent) expecting similar or better market conditions in 2016, the highest share since spring 2015.

Graphics (click links to open):

• Pending home sales by region.
• More than half of homes sold below asking price.
• Share of properties receiving multiple offers.
• REALTORS®’ market condition concerns.

*Note:  C.A.R.’s pending sales information is generated from a survey of more than 70 associations of REALTORS® and MLSs throughout the state.  Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity, offering solid information on future changes in the direction of the market.  A sale is listed as pending after a seller has accepted a sales contract on a property.  The majority of pending home sales usually becomes closed sales transactions one to two months later.  The year 2008 was used as the benchmark for the Pending Homes Sales Index.  An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2008.

**C.A.R.’s Market Pulse Survey is a monthly online survey of more than 300 California REALTORS® to measure data about their last closed transaction and sentiment about business activity in their market area for the previous month and the last year.

Leading the way...® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with 185,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.