Fed not likely to increase interest rates "until December or later"

There are only three meetings left this year for the Federal Open Market Committee, and the likelihood they’ll raise interest rates above current levels looks slim, judging by the latest meeting minutes released on Wednesday.

National Association of Federal Credit Unions Chief Economist Curt Long explained that the FOMC minutes continue to reflect divisions within the committee.

“The constant refrain of 'data dependency' from Fed officials loses its meaning when there is no consensus on what the data means, much less which policy course is warranted,” said Long.

“Nevertheless, it seems safe to say that many of the committee’s fears were alleviated with the strong June jobs report and by Brexit’s lack of impact on financial markets,” he said. “With inflationary pressures yet to emerge, the Fed seems happy to play the waiting game as far as rate normalization is concerned.”

Long concluded that as a result, they “anticipate no rate hike until December or later.”

Genworth Mortgage Insurance Chief Economist Tian Liu also noted that today’s release of the FOMC minutes came after the strong job market report in July and diminished volatility in the financial market. 

“We believe the FOMC will continue to pay close attention to incoming economic data, especially the August jobs report.  For the 30-year mortgage rate, the pace of future rate increases is more important than the timing of the next rate increase, and today’s minute does not indicate an acceleration.”  

The minutes did shed some light on the committee’s thoughts surrounding Brexit stating:

Overall, negative sentiment surrounding the Brexit out- come early in the intermeeting period was subsequently alleviated by expectations for greater policy accommodation in some AFEs, some resolution of near-term political uncertainty in the United Kingdom, and positive U.S. economic data releases. Nevertheless, several longer-term global risks related to Brexit remained.

However, the minutes mostly reiterated much of the same information the market already knows.

From the minutes:

With respect to the economic outlook and its implications for monetary policy, members continued to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity would expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators would strengthen.

Directly after the meeting in July, the FOMC announced it choose to keep the federal funds rate between 0.25% and 0.5%, which is the same level as when the Fed originally announced it would raise rates back in December.

Courtesy of Brena Swanson Housing Wire:  http://www.housingwire.com/articles/37809-fed-not-likely-to-increase-interest-rates-until-december-or-later?eid=311685553&bid=1501400

Home Price Gains Continue in Most U.S. Metros in Mid-2016

According to the latest quarterly report by the National Association of Realtors, U.S. home prices maintained their robust, upward trajectory in a vast majority of metro areas during the second quarter, causing affordability to slightly decline despite mortgage rates hovering at lows not seen in over three years. The report also revealed that for the first time ever, a metro area - San Jose, California had a median single-family home price above $1 million.

The median existing single-family home price increased in 83 percent of measured markets, with 148 out of 178 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) showing gains based on closed sales in the second quarter compared with the second quarter of 2015. Twenty-nine areas (16 percent) recorded lower median prices from a year earlier.

There were slightly fewer rising markets in the second quarter compared to the first three months of this year, when price gains were recorded in 87 percent of metro areas. Twenty-five metro areas in the second quarter (14 percent) experienced double-digit increases - a small decrease from the 28 metro areas in the first quarter. A year ago, 34 metro areas (19 percent) experienced double-digit price gains.

Lawrence Yun

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says a faster pace of home sales amidst languishing inventory levels pushed home prices higher in most metro areas during the second quarter. "Steadily improving local job markets and mortgage rates teetering close to all-time lows brought buyers out in force in many large and middle-tier cities," he said. "However, with homebuilding activity still failing to keep up with demand and not enough current homeowners putting their home up for sale, prices continued their strong ascent - and in many markets at a rate well above income growth."

The national median existing single-family home price in the second quarter was $240,700, up 4.9 percent from the second quarter of 2015 ($229,400), which was previously the peak quarterly median sales price. The median price during the first quarter of this year increased 6.1 percent from the first quarter of 2015.  

Courtesy of World Property Journal:  http://www.worldpropertyjournal.com/real-estate-news/united-states/san-jose/median-home-prices-2016-national-association-of-realtors-lawrence-yun-existing-home-sales-housing-inventory-2016-nar-9981.php

'Nesting is investing' as home improvement spending set to hit $321 billion

Home equity is back, and headed for the bathroom — or the kitchen or the garage or wherever today's homeowners see the greatest returns.

Higher home prices have given people cash back and they are putting that cash to work in more — and bigger — remodeling projects.

Growth in home improvement and repair expenditures will reach 8 percent by the start of 2017, according to a new report from Harvard's Joint Center for Housing. That is far beyond its 4.9 percent historical average.

"By the middle of next year, the national remodeling market should be very close to a full recovery from its worst downturn on record," said Abbe Will, research analyst in the remodeling futures program at the Joint Center. "Annual spending is set to reach $321 billion by then, which after adjusting for inflation is just shy of the previous peak set in 2006 before the housing crash."

HeroImages | Getty Images

A couple works on home renovations.

Increased home equity is certainly playing a large role, as are near-record low mortgage rates, which are enticing owners to refinance and potentially pull cash out. In the first quarter of this year alone, homeowners gained a collective $260 billion in additional home equity, thanks to higher home values, and with that increase, 38 million borrowers now have at least 20 percent equity in their homes, according to Black Knight Financial Services.

Confidence is also key. When people feel better about their home's value, they are more apt to invest in it.

"I call it 'nesting is investing.' People are saying I want to do something that adds to the value of my house, and I'm just going to fortify the castle," said Brad Hunter, chief economist with HomeAdvisor, an online home services marketplace.

And what fortifies the castle best? Kitchen and bath remodels are always popular, but Hunter points to less sexy insulation, as yielding the largest returns. He also said service requests on HomeAdvisor for multiroom remodels are up 67 percent from a year ago.

"We could see percentage growth rates in the remodeling and home- improvement sector that exceed those for new home construction in the next few years," Hunter said.

At least one-quarter of remodeling firms across all sectors report seeing more clients taking on multiple projects at the same time, according to another report from Houzz, also an online remodeling services firm.

Nesting is not the only thing driving home remodeling. As home sales pick up, they fuel fresh finishings as well.

"As more homeowners are enticed to list their properties, we can expect increased remodeling and repair in preparation for sales, coupled with spending by the new owners who are looking to customize their homes to fit their needs," said Chris Herbert, managing director of Harvard's Joint Center.

No matter the reason, growth in remodeling is a boon to retailers likeHome Depot, Lowes, Sherwin Williams and Masco — and of course their stocks. Consumers are not only doing more renovations, they're spending more on them. With homebuilders still producing far fewer homes than are necessary to meet demand, owners of existing homes are trying to make them new again.

Courtesy of:  http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/21/nesting-is-investing-as-home-improvement-spending-set-to-hit-321-billion.html  Diana Olick | @DianaOlick

Thursday, 21 Jul 2016 | 9:19 AM ETCNBC.com

Foreign buyers flood US real estate, but buy cheaper homes

The appetite for U.S. real estate continues to flourish, but international buyers are shifting their sights from luxury to less-pricey properties. This may be due to overall higher home prices, along with a stronger U.S. dollar, which both cost foreign buyers more at the negotiating table. There are also fewer nonresident foreigners investing in the market.

"Weaker economic growth throughout the world, devalued foreign currencies and financial market turbulence combined to present significant challenges for foreign buyers over the past year," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR). "While these obstacles led to a cool down in sales from nonresident foreign buyers, the purchases by recent immigrant foreigners rose, resulting in the overall sales dollar volume still being the second highest since 2009."

Zhang Peng | LightRocket | Getty Images

Chinese investors negotiate at the US-China Real Estate summit & trade fair in Beijing. (File photo).

Foreign buyers purchased $102.6 billion of residential property in the U.S. between April 2015 and March 2016, according to NAR's annual report on international activity in U.S. real estate. That is a 1.3 percent decline in dollar volume from the previous survey. The number of properties purchased, however, rose 2.8 percent to 214,885. The value of homes bought by foreigners was typically higher than the median price of all U.S. homes.

"The slight drop in dollar volume can probably be accounted for based on the types of properties purchased, and the locations of many of those properties. We've seen at least some evidence that foreign buyers — both investors and people just looking for a home — have begun looking beyond expensive markets like San Francisco, New York City and Washington D.C., and buying properties in smaller, less-expensive cities in the Southeast and Midwest," said Rick Sharga, executive vice president at Ten-X (formerly Auction.com), an online real estate marketplace .

Another major shift was in the makeup of international buyers. Chinese purchasers continued to outpace all others, with their dollar volume exceeding the total of the next four ranked countries combined. Their dollar volume of sales, at $27.3 billion, was a slight decrease from last year's survey but was still three times as much as Canadian buyers, who were ranked second. Chinese buyers also bought the most expensive homes at a median price of $542,084. 

"Although China's currency modestly weakened versus the U.S. dollar in the past year, it's much stronger than it was five to 10 years ago, thereby making U.S. properties still appear reasonably affordable over a longer time span," wrote Yun in the report. 

Given today's volatility in global financial markets, real estate is one of the safest investments available. U.S. real estate in particular is relatively inexpensive compared to properties in Asia. 

"The explosive growth of the Chinese economy created a very large number of very wealthy people. As that country's economy has slowed down, those individuals are looking for better investment alternatives, and many have concluded that U.S. real estate is a smart bet," added Sharga.

London had been a favorite of foreign investors, but the impact of the Brexit vote is already hitting the housing market there. Buyers from the United Kingdom were the fourth-largest consumer of U.S. real estate in the data that was gathered before the Brexit vote.

"Sales activity from U.K. buyers could very well subside over the next year depending on how severe the economic fallout is from Britain's decision to leave the European Union," added Yun. "However, with economic instability and political turmoil outside of the U.S. likely to persist, the world view of American real estate as a safe investment should keep demand firm even as pressures from a stronger dollar continue to weigh down on affordability." 

As for U.S. destinations, five states accounted for half of foreign buyer purchases: Florida, (22 percent), California (15 percent), Texas (10 percent), Arizona and New York (each at 4 percent). Latin Americans, Europeans and Canadians, who historically favor warmer climates, were most prevalent in Florida and Arizona. Asian buyers flocked to California and New York. Texas was more a mix of buyers from Latin American, the Caribbean and Asia. Texas may be more of an investment play, as demand for single-family rentals there remains strong.

Sales to nonresident foreign buyers fell to the lowest dollar volume since 2013. Shares to foreign residents increased. The shares had been evenly split, but higher home prices and the depreciating value of foreign currencies likely played into that dynamic.

"Led by Venezuela (45 percent) and Brazil (24 percent), at least eight countries, including China and Canada, saw double-digit percent increases in the median sales price of a U.S. existing home when measured in their country's currency," added Yun.

Courtesy of Diana Olick, CSNBC: http://www.cnbc.com/real-estate/

Mortgage rates sink to three-year low, thanks largely to Brexit

The stock market’s plunge following the Brexit vote was bad for most people’s retirement accounts but good for those looking to refinance their mortgage. Even as the market has started to recover its losses and the flight to bonds’ safety has eased, home loan rates remain down.

Despite the low rates, growing pessimism over the direction of the economy is spilling over into home-purchase sentiment. Pending home sales – those deals that are under contract but have not closed – declined in May, marking their first annual drop in nearly two years. Rates may be low, but not many people are rushing out to make a big purchase such as a home with so much economic uncertainty. The group most likely to benefit from low rates are homeowners seeking to refinance.

Bankrate.com, which puts out a weekly mortgage rate trend index, found that almost half of the experts it surveyed believe rates will remain relatively unchanged in the coming week while a third believe they will fall further.

[You don’t need a stellar credit score to qualify for a mortgage]

According to the latest data released Thursday by Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate average plunged to 3.48 percent with an average 0.5 point. (Points are fees paid to a lender equal to 1 percent of the loan amount.) It was 3.56 percent a week ago and 4.08 percent a year ago. Since the beginning of the year, the 30-year fixed rate has plummeted nearly 50 basis points. (A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.) It has fallen 18 basis points in the past month alone.

The 15-year fixed-rate average sank to 2.78 percent with an average 0.4 point. It was 2.83 percent a week ago and 3.24 percent a year ago.

The five-year adjustable rate average dropped to 2.70 percent with an average 0.5 point. It was 2.74 percent a week ago and 2.99 percent a year ago.

[Mortgage applicants may benefit from changes in credit-scoring system]

“In the wake of the Brexit vote, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond plummeted 24 basis points,” Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac chief economist, said in a statement. “This week’s survey rate is the lowest since May 2013 and only 17 basis points above the all-time low recorded in November 2012. This extremely low mortgage rate should support solid home sales and refinancing volume this summer.”  Meanwhile, mortgage applications declined this week, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The market composite index — a measure of total loan application volume — fell 2.6 percent from the previous week. The refinance index slipped 2 percent, while the purchase index dropped 3 percent.

The refinance share of mortgage activity accounted for 58.1 percent of all applications.

“In light of the Brexit vote and other recent economic news, MBA now predicts that the Fed will hike only once this year, likely in December,” said Lynn Fisher, Mortgage Bankers Association vice president of research and economics. “If the financial market disruption from Brexit persists, the likelihood of even a December hike would be reduced.”

By Kathy Orton

The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/where-we-live/wp/2016/06/30/mortgage-rates-havent-been-this-low-in-three-years-2/

‘Brexit’ Could Give U.S. Real Estate Brief Boost

Britain's vote to exit the European Union will likely have a long-term impact on the world economy, but in the short-term, U.S. real estate could be flooded with investors flocking to the U.S. as a safe haven, pushing up the dollar and sending down mortgage rates.

Read more: Why the Economy Is Slowing

"Demand for U.S. real estate could rise," says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

On the commercial side, global corporations could show additional interest in U.S. real restate as they come to see the U.K. as a less certain place to set up or maintain their businesses, Yun says, "especially in London, as it becomes a less attractive place to conduct global business."

While a rise in the dollar could hurt U.S. exports, it's also expected to put downward pressure on long-term mortgage interest rates. "Mortgage rates will tumble," says Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, "possibly hitting new record lows. If you're a borrower, don't wait to lock in your rate, as this opportunity may not last long."

However, Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan says low rates because of economic uncertainty could last for a while. "The Fed will very likely be on hold for some time as it observes the impact on U.S. and global financial markets and economic activity," he says.

If mortgage rates — already at historic lows — drop even further, that could help drive up sales of all types of U.S. real estate, including on the residential side. Foreign households who might have otherwise looked to London to buy might turn to U.S. residential real estate, although U.K. citizens, who historically are among the top buyers of investment and vacation homes in the U.S., could pull back. "The British economy will be disrupted, and hence we should expect fewer Brits able to buy in the U.S.," Yun says.

Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, was quoted in a Bankrate.com article saying a further drop in mortgage interest rates could give new life to home-mortgage refinancing, which started to cool early this year after several years of big growth. "This would create another mini refinance mortgage boom at financial institutions, as homeowners rush to lock in near-historic low interest rates," he said.

In the long run, though, the uncertainty stemming from the vote could cause broad global weakening, which would hurt jobs, income, and consumer confidence. That would be a net-negative for U.S. real estate, even if it sees gains in the short-term.   

—Robert Freedman, REALTOR® Magazine

This Summer, Homes Are Selling Faster

Homes for sale in June are selling 2 percent more quickly than last year as prices soar to record highs, according to new data on inventory and user activity on realtor.com®.

The median age of inventory nationwide for June is projected to be 65 days, which is 2 percent less than a year ago. One-third of the 300 medium to large markets surveyed posted a month-over-month drop in days that homes spent on the market. Some markets even posted a double-digit drop.

“Continuing this spring’s trend, pent-up demand from buyers who weren’t able to purchase a home last year, combined with low inventory, pushed up prices and got homes to sell quickly,” realtor.com®’s report notes.

For-sale inventory typically increases this time of season, however, total inventory still remains lower than last year at this time. An estimated 525,000 new listings are expected to come onto the market by the end of the month. Still, compared with June 2015, listing inventory dropped 5 percent.

NAR's latest report: Existing-Home Sales at Highest Pace in 9 Years

The low inventories are pushing up home prices. The median home list price was $252,000 in June – 8 percent higher than a year ago, realtor.com® reports.

“However, much of the effect of higher prices is being offset by mortgage rates that are the lowest we’ve seen in three years,” Smoke notes.

Source: “America’s 20 Hottest Real Estate Markets for June 2016,” realtor.com® (June 23, 2016)

8 Critical Trends in Real Estate

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | THURSDAY, JUNE 23, 2016

Every year, the Counselors of Real Estate, a group of real estate professionals who hold the CRE designation and seek to offer unbiased guidance on real estate topics, offers a list of major issues that they feel could affect the industry.

Learn what the implications of these potential shifts could be for your business. 

1. Shifts in the World Economy

In response to economic and political uncertainties, the International Monetary Fund amended GDP growth to spiral downward for much of the globe in 2016 and 2017.

Implications for real estate: The CRE sees China as the primary competition in this sector, having capped a five-year real estate investment total to more than $110 billion. They caution that economic deceleration could lead to lower investment in infrastructure worldwide.

2. Lending Issues

CRE is predicting lending for commercial projects will decrease as many insurance companies, bank lenders, and debt markets reach allocation limits. Further, the group sees no legislative action on the horizon to change retention rules set to go into effect this summer.

Implications for real estate: With more restrictions on risky commercial real estate lending, CRE predicts it’ll be tough to finance projects. But the group also sees this as an opportunity for “other, less regulated lenders to enter the market,” including crowdfunding.

3. Demographics

The millennial population is growing as approximately 10,000 baby boomers as retire each day, according to The CRE. The group finds an increasing number of buyers from every generation want homes in the same places.

Implications for real estate: CRE predicts continued strength in multifamily, and growth in boomer-focused housing offering medical, assisted living, and memory care services. In retail, expect more “experiential” shopping/dining/entertainment destinations, but nothing too luxurious as wages continue to stagnate.

4. Increased Urbanization

To cater to the demands of urbanization, a thriving live-work-play rental market will see higher migrations of residents and businesses seeking densely populated areas, according to CRE research.

Implications for real estate: Suburbs will see increased pressure to urbanize, and “high density mixed-use centers” that offer transit, luxury living spaces, retail, work space, and entertainment will continue to be popular. Watch out for specialized spaces centered around “innovation” and “education” hubs.

5. Unattainable Affordability

The CRE says affordable homes and flexible credit have grown more unattainable, which challenges both the rental and homeownership markets. The lack of housing inventory is another contributing factor.

Implications for real estate: As buyers flock to purchase starter homes, micro homes may provide affordable alternatives for millennials.

6. Energy Affecting Development

The instability in the oil industry has not only been a threat to global economic security, it also has led to the restriction of commercial real estate debt in some areas.

Implications for real estate: According to the CRE, oil instability—currently at its highest level in 50 years—stunts economic growth and job opportunities in areas where production is prevalent. Demand from China could turn this around, but it remains a volatile market that could affect development.

7. The Sharing Economy

Airbnb and Uber, companies that operate outside traditional regulations and offer alternatives for employment are two examples that show how the sharing economy is becoming more firmly established.

Implications for real estate: Just as Uber caused taxi revenue to decrease, shared and virtual office spaces could negatively impact commercial real estate values.

8. Online Retail

According to the CRE, traditional retail is beginning to thrive in an e-friendly cyberspace, expanding its reach and adhering to downsizing trends.

Implications for real estate: With product purchases shifting to online, a shift from large chains to neighborhood shops is key to attracting consumers while building profit, according to the CRE. Many customers today visit retail locations for the experience alone.

Source: “The CRE 2016-2017 Top Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate,” The Counselors of Real Estate (June 8, 2016).

The Best Choices for Pet-Friendly Flooring

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | MONDAY, JUNE 20, 2016

If you're looking for pet-friendly flooring, you can't go wrong with porcelain tile. A recent article from This Old House points out that not only is porcelain tile moisture-proof, it's also not prone to scratches.

Concrete can also be a good flooring choice. Epoxy grout (tile) or an epoxy finish (concrete) can help minimize the upkeep further.

Prime Homes for Pets

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Hardwood flooring – particularly oak, hickory, or Brazilian cherry – can also be a good options for pets. “Prefinished wood floors with a factory-applied aluminum oxide top coat resist scratches and dings best,” This Old House notes. “A matte penetrating-oil finish can disguise scuffs and is less slipper – just touch up nicks with a stain pen or putty.”

Vinyl and linoleum also can be a good low-maintenance option. However, frequent pet accidents eventually can become an issue with these flooring types since they are glued-down.

Some of the worst options are laminate (it can be prone to moisture damage and noisy with pet feet) and carpets and rugs (prone to staining).

Source: “Ground Rules for Dog-Friendly Flooring,” This Old House (June 2016)

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Located on a nice cul-de-sac which leads to walking trails and community amenities.

Light and bright spacious floor plan with vaulted ceilings.

Enjoy this cozy fireplace while relaxing in your living room.

Put your culinary skills to work in this beautiful updated kitchen that overlooks back yard.

Lounge in this quiet and peaceful yard that is drought resistant.

Have fun on the tennis courts that are within walking distance of the home.

Relax and enjoy the refreshing pools on those hot summer days.

Contact Angela Yglesias at 805.490.4944 and/or yglesias75@gmail.com for a showing of this lovely property!  Outstanding schools, and close to shopping and restaurants!!!  You don't want to miss this!

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Mortgage Rates Dip After Bad Jobs Report

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | FRIDAY, JUNE 10, 2016

On the heels of this week's negative jobs report, long-term U.S. mortgage rates dropped for the first time in three weeks.

According to Freddie Mac, this drop marks the 10th consecutive week the 30-year mortgage rate averaged under 3.7 percent, which is allowing buyers an extended chance to lock in low rates during housing's busiest time of year.

"Growing optimism about the state of the economy was quickly erased with May's employment report," says Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. "The disappointing release caused an immediate flight to quality resulting in the 10-year Treasury yield dropping 10 basis points on Friday."

Freddie Mac reports the following national mortgage rate averages for the week:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.60 percent with an average 0.5 point this week, down from its average of 3.66 percent last week. A year ago rates averaged 4.04 percent. 
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: this week averaged 2.87 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.92 percent. A year ago rates averaged 3.25 percent. 
• 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.82 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.88 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.01 percent.

Source: Freddie Mac