California pending home sales contract in November

Pending home sales dropped from both the previous month and last year in November, indicating that the robust sales registered in November will likely not be repeated in the months ahead, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

California’s housing market showed signs of slowing competition with more properties selling below asking price and fewer properties receiving more than three offers compared to a year ago, as reflected in C.A.R.’s November Market Pulse Survey**.

Pending home sales data:

• Based on signed contracts, statewide pending home sales fell in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* falling 3.5 percent from 118.5 in November 2015 to 114.4 in November 2016 – the first year-to-year decrease in eight months. On a monthly basis, California pending home sales were down 4 percent from the October index of 119.1. 

• At the regional level, for Southern California as a whole, pending sales dropped 11.9 percent on a monthly basis and were up 3.9 percent on an annual basis. Los Angeles, Orange, and San Bernardino counties posted healthy year-over-year increases of 7.5 percent, 5.3 percent, and 5 percent, respectively.

• For the San Francisco Bay Area as a whole, pending sales were 18.1 percent lower than October and 12.3 percent lower than November 2015, as high housing prices continued to erode affordability. San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties all experienced annual declines in pending home sales of 1.1 percent, 8.7 percent, and 14.9 percent, respectively.

• Overall pending sales in the Central Valley declined from both the previous month and year, decreasing 4.7 percent from October and 4.6 percent from a year ago.

 
Year-to-Year Change in Pending Sales by County/Region

County/Region/State	Nov-16	Nov-15	Yearly % Change
Counties
Kern	56.4	60.5	-6.8%
Los Angeles	74.7	69.5	7.5%
Monterey	57.1	55.3	3.2%
Orange	58.3	55.3	5.3%
Sacramento	60.7	63.9	-5.0%
San Bernardino	63.1	60.1	5.0%
San Diego	107.5	113.6	-5.4%
San Francisco	95.7	96.7	-1.1%
San Mateo	89.4	97.8	-8.7%
Santa Clara	70.6	83.0	-14.9%
Regions
SF Bay Area	118.8	135.4	-12.3%
So. CA	89.1	85.7	3.9%
Central Valley	80.3	84.2	-4.6%
California (SA)	114.4	118.5	-3.5%

* Seasonally adjusted

November REALTOR® Market Pulse Survey**:

In a reflection of a typical seasonal slowdown, California REALTORS® responding to C.A.R.’s November Market Pulse Survey reported a decline in floor calls, listing appointments, and open house traffic. Additionally, three times the number of REALTORS® were concerned with rising interest rates compared to October.

• The share of homes selling below asking price rose from 40 percent a year ago to 44 percent in November. Conversely, the share of properties selling above asking price dipped to 25 percent from 27 percent in November 2015. The remaining 31 percent sold at asking price, down from 33 percent in November 2015.

• For homes that sold above asking price, the premium paid over asking price dropped to 8.4 percent, down from 9.1 percent in October and 8.9 percent a year ago.

• The 44 percent of homes that sold below asking price sold for an average of 11 percent below asking price in November, up from 8.9 percent in October and down 13 percent from a year ago.

• Two-thirds of properties for sale (66 percent) received multiple offers in November, up from 59 percent in October and unchanged from November 2015.

• The share of properties receiving three or more offers increased to 36 percent. Thirty percent of properties received three or more offers in October, and 38 percent of properties received three or more offers a year ago.

• Compared to a year ago, there was an increase in the share of homes receiving three or more offers in homes priced below $200,000, $400,000 to $499,000, and $2 million and higher. The share of homes priced $200,000 to $299,000 experienced the sharpest decline, falling from 42 percent in November 2015 to 18 percent in November 2016.

• About a third (31 percent) of properties had listing price reductions in November, unchanged from October and up slightly from 30 percent in November 2015.

• Rising interest rates moved near the top of REALTORS®’ concerns in November, with triple the number of REALTORS® who were concerned about higher rates than in October. Rising interest rates concerned 19 percent of REALTORS®, up from 6 percent in October. High home prices and housing affordability concerned 39 percent of REALTORS®, while a lack of available homes for sale concerned 26 percent. REALTORS® also were concerned about a slowdown in economic growth, lending and financing, and policy and regulations.

• REALTORS®’ expectation of market conditions over the next year has been trending downward for the past few months but is still in positive territory at an index of 54 in November, unchanged from October but down from 57 in November 2015.

Graphics (click links to open):

• YTY change in pending home sales by region.
• More properties selling below asking price.
• Average number of multiple offers received.
• Price range of homes receiving 3+ offers.
• Lack of inventory, rising interest rates top REALTORS®’ concerns.

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*Note:  C.A.R.’s pending sales information is generated from a survey of more than 70 associations of REALTORS® and MLSs throughout the state.  Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity, offering solid information on future changes in the direction of the market.  A sale is listed as pending after a seller has accepted a sales contract on a property. The majority of pending home sales usually become closed sales transactions one to two months later. The year 2008 was used as the benchmark for the Pending Homes Sales Index.  An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2008.

**C.A.R.’s Market Pulse Survey is a monthly online survey sent to more than 10,000 California REALTORS® to measure data about their last closed transaction and sentiment about business activity in their market area for the previous month. Approximately 300 REALTORS® responded.

Leading the way...® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with 185,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

5 Home Design Fads That Are Out in 2017

Shiplap and white-on-white kitchens may finally be falling out of favor. The two trends have dominated home design in recent years, but realtor.com® says they'll be fading fast in 2017. Here are some of the home design trends realtor.com® predicts will fall to the wayside in the new year.

Which Trends Are In?

Check out 11 home design trends that will dominate in 2017.

1. Gray. Once the hottest color, gray is now looking gloomy. "It's been overdone," says Tanya Campbell of Denver-based Viridis Design Studio. "Diversity in the palette will strike a contrast. We may even see a transition from gray color palettes to warmer mochas and taupes."
2. The glam look. This style's signature is bold whites, bright silvers, and deep blacks, which have been popular in kitchen and bathroom designs. "We're going to leave the glam era behind. That slick, stark, severe minimalism will be replaced with warmer elements," says interior designer Bea Pila. "At the end of the day, we're seeking a deeper comfort level in our personal spaces. That perfect showroom feel we were once into doesn't make this possible."
3. Shiplap. Shiplap surged to popularity as Joanna Gaines, host of HGTV's "Fixer Upper," turned to it as her go-to remodeling piece. But realtor.com® notes: “If you’ve ever wondered what 2016's version of tacky wood paneling would be, look no further than this trend that seems to have overtaken TV design shows." It's difficult to remove, and designers now say it often makes little sense to use, particularly in a Colonial or Tudor home style.
4. White-on-white kitchens. White everything in the kitchen — from countertops to cabinetry and even the floor — is fading fast. "It's just too much," says Sara Chiarilli, a designer at Sarasota, Fla.-based Artful Conceptions. "This trend started to go in 2016, but you will find it completely gone in 2017." That said, Chiarilli predicts that whites will stick around, but they will take on more depth and tones in kitchens in the new year.
5. Copper. Expect to see less of this heavy metal in 2017. Copper fixtures are another trend on the chopping block in the new year, realtor.com® notes.

Source: “10 Interior Design Trends That Are So Completely Over for 2017,” realtor.com® (Dec. 29, 2016)

The Hottest Housing Markets in December

Demand among home buyers doesn’t seem to be decreasing heading into the winter months. The median list price remained the same from November to December, when usually it decreases.

Read more: 10 Housing Markets to Envy in 2017

The current median price reached a record high for December of $250,000, which is 9 percent higher than a year ago, according to realtor.com®’s latest housing report. Further, the median number of days that properties are staying on the market is about 88 days for December, which is five days faster than a year ago.

California cities continue to dominate some of the fastest housing markets, making up 12 of the top 20 markets. San Francisco continued to hold on to the number one spot for the fourth month in a row. 

Realtor.com® analyzed markets to determine where homes are selling the fastest and buyers are checking out listings the most (based on realtor.com® views). Here are the 20 markets that topped its list for December:

1. San Francisco
2. Dallas
3. Vallejo, Calif.
4. San Jose, Calif.
5. San Diego
6. Denver
7. Stockton, Calif.
8. Columbus, Ohio
9. Sacramento, Calif.
10. Detroit
11. Yuba City, Calif.
12. Santa Rosa, Calif.
13. Fresno, Calif.
14. Colorado Springs, Colo.
15. Oxnard, Calif.
16. Fort Wayne, Ind.
17. Los Angeles
18. Nashville
19. Midland, Texas
20. Modesto, Calif.

Source: “America’s Hottest Markets for Real Estate in December,” realtor.com® (Dec. 22, 2016)

Get Inspired By These On-Trend Offices

Whether you’re hoping to help a commercial building shine, looking for some inspiration to spruce up your brokerage’s digs, or just love well-designed office space, Inc. magazine’s round-up of the coolest workspaces of 2016 is way more fun than pencil-pushing.

Unsurprisingly, each of the ten offices Inc. profiled from around the globe included amenities that cater to the needs of tenants. So if you’re looking to explore a certain type of bonus or attraction to add to an office, learn from these award-winning developers and designers.

Create a space that’s true to a company’s purpose. Etsy’s new office not only features handmade artistic creations in the decor, but also offers a craft room for employees.
Inspiration: Etsy | Brooklyn, NY

Read more: Adding Health and Wellness to Office Space

Entering a new global market? Consider highlighting local design, which is what happened when Airbnb hired a local architecture firm called Farm to create a new office space that included details such as traditional ventilation blocks reminiscent of those used in local housing projects.
Inspiration: Airbnb | Singapore

Flexibility is the new normal. We’re moving beyond simple sit-or-stand desks; employees often want the ability to choose the right position for the task at hand. And it’s not just personal space; the main conference room at Gensler's East Bay branch has moveable glass walls and massive drapes that can transform the space.
Inspiration: Gensler | Oakland, Calif.

Looking to accentuate a beautiful view? Sometimes just clean windows aren’t enough. Try surrounding unique portals with a living wall to highlight and connect with the vista beyond.
Inspiration: Uniplaces | Lisbon, Portugal

Shipping containers offer endless possibilities. When Rapt Studio turned an industrial building into a multi-tenant campus, they used one shipping container to create a cafe, and another to house bikes tenants can borrow for short rides to the shore.
Inspiration: Make | Carlsbad, Calif.

Source: The World’s Coolest Offices of 2016, Inc. magazine (Sept. 12, 2016). 

Once the Nemesis, Now the ARMs Are Back

With mortgage rates on the rise in recent weeks, some home buyers are already being priced out because of the uptick — leading some to reconsider riskier mortgage products than the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. After all, other mortgage options still offer lower rates at the moment, and their popularity likely will grow as fixed-rate mortgages continue to rise.

The adjustable-rate mortgage has the stigma of being blamed for the housing crash, when lenders were offering “creative” ARMs, like no down payments, low teaser rates, or interest-only payments and loans that actually grew over time (known as negative amortization). New mortgage regulations have cast most of those products as now illegal. But ARMs are still on the market, and some financial experts say they can be low-risk. 

"These aren't the ARMs of the past," Mat Ishbia, president and CEO of United Wholesale Mortgage, told CNBC. "It's not any more difficult for a borrower to qualify for an ARM than a fixed-rate mortgage, as long as the term of the ARM is over five years."

The ARMs of today require principal and interest payments. The rate also can be fixed for up to 10 years so that there is no change with the interest rate during that time.

ARMs now comprise only about 6 percent of total mortgage applications. In 2006, they accounted for 35 percent of the share.

The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 4.16 percent last week. In comparison, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.19 percent, according to Freddie Mac’s mortgage market survey.

“I think you're going to see more programs focusing on ARMs,” says Joe Tyrrell, executive vice president of corporate strategy at Ellie Mae. “I think you'll see more flexibility in the terms."

Source: “How This ‘Villain’ of the Housing Crash Could Be Right for You Now,” CNBC (Dec. 19, 2016)

Women Power Strike the Housing Market

Single women are re-emerging in real estate, with numbers are growing in proportion to the rest of the market.

The number of single female buyers has been on the rise since 1981, increasing from 11 percent to 22 percent during the market’s peak in 2006, according to data from the National Association of REALTORS®. Seventeen percent of home buyers today are single women. That number is expected to grow in the coming years.

“They don’t fear buying a home and are not waiting to be in a relationship to qualify for a mortgage,” says Elizabeth Weintraub, broker-associate at Lyon Real Estate in Sacramento, Calif.

Single men, on the other hand, are purchasing homes at far lower rates, even with their higher earnings. Single men have accounted for about 7 percent of home buyers in 2016, according to NAR data.

Single female home buyers tend to be older than both single men and married couples who are buying homes, surveys show. Many are buying who are single, including those who are widowed or divorced or who have never been married at all. Some have children with them. The number of single-mother households increased to 8.6 million in 2011 from 1.9 million in 1960, according to a 2013 Pew Research Center analysis.

Single female buyers, on average, are typically looking for a 1,500-square-foot home with three bedrooms and two bathrooms, says Jessica Lautz, NAR’s manager of member and consumer reach. About half are looking to buy in urban centers, while the remainder want to buy in rural areas or small towns. They also are showing a greater interest in condos that offer landscaping and other maintenance services and feature a community-centric environment.

The median age for a single female buyer is 50 (single male buyers’ median age is 47 and the median age for a married couple buyer is 44).

The decline in the U.S. marriage rate is expected to result in an increase in single female and single male home buyers in the coming years. (The marriage rate has fallen from 8.2 per 1,000 people in 2000 to 6.9 per 1,000 people in 2014.)

“I expect single women buyers to continue to be a force in the market,” Lautz says.

Source: “The Single Female Homebuyer Is Back – and She’s Here to Stay,” Construction Dive (Dec. 15, 2016)

Where It’s Better to Buy Than Rent

Home prices and rents are soaring in many markets across the country, according to the latest national index reading by Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University

Read more: Housing Markets Move More Into Buy Zone

“With both significant increases in rents and property prices, the issue of housing affordability is quickly becoming a major concern again across many areas of the country,” says Ken Johnson, a real estate economist and one of the index’s authors. “Given the country’s experience during the run-up to the housing crash in 2008, it’s doubtful that we will again respond to the housing affordability issue with easy and flexible access to credit.”

The Beracha, Hardin & Johnson Buy vs. Rent Index, based on data from the end of the third quarter, shows that rents across all 23 major cities that were measured are rising slower than the rate of property price appreciation. As such, more areas are moving – albeit marginally – in the direction of being more rent friendly, the index shows.

Over the last three years, the rate of rent increases have nearly matched the rate of property price increases, which the index authors say supports the conclusion that property prices are being supported by rent increases.

“Increasing employment and increasing income combine with rising rents to provide a sound economic environment for the country’s housing markets, in general,” says Eli Beracha, co-author of the index and assistant professor in the T&S Hollo School of Real Estate at FIU.

Fifteen of the 23 cities measured in the index are in the “buy” territory, which means ownership is a better vehicle for creating wealth. Those 15 cities are:

• Atlanta
• Boston
• Chicago
• Cincinnati
• Cleveland
• Detroit
• Honolulu
• Kansas City
• Los Angeles
• Milwaukee
• Minneapolis
• New York
• Philadelphia
• San Diego
• St. Louis, Mo.

Source: Florida Atlantic University

Easy Ways to Enhance the Home’s Entryway

The entrance to the home is where buyers often form some of their first impressions of the interior of the home.

However, too often, “the entryway gets neglected because it isn’t necessary in the same way that a living room sofa is,” Larina Kase, an interior designer and home stager in the Philadelphia area, told realtor.com®. “But it’s actually one of the simplest and least expensive areas to decorate to get the biggest impact.”

That said, many entryways suffer from overcrowded coat racks and oversized furniture that is making the area feel less appealing and less spacious, designers say.

Get more ideas: Front Entry Tips and Trends for Every Home

Here are a few simple things you can try to spice up the home’s entryway:

Add a mirror: “Every entryway needs a spectacular mirror, especially in small spaces,” says Jack Menashe of Menashe Design in New York. “It makes them optically larger and adds depth. Plus, who doesn’t want to check themselves out before they leave the house?”

Light it up: Add a small lamp on a table for a welcoming glow.

Fresh flowers: Try an orchid, potted plant, or vase of cut blooms to add a touch of nature and color.

A bench: If there’s space in the entryway, have a place to sit down and that ideally has some storage underneath it too. Add a colorful pillow to brighten up the space too.

Source: “5 Entryway Essentials to Welcome People Into Your Home – and 3 Eyesores,” realtor.com® (Dec. 14, 2016)

Families Can Get $11,000 More In Loan Funds

Interest rates are inching up and credit can still be hard to get but there is one bright spot for households hoping to buy a home soon: they can get a larger loan now, thanks to recent loan-limit increases for both conforming loans and loans backed by FHA.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) increased the conforming loan limit a few weeks ago, for the first time in 10 years, and it’s now at $424,100 in most markets, up from $417,000.

That increase didn’t come about by chance. Among other things, the agency last year heard from NAR on making the limits more responsive to changes in market conditions.

“NAR encouraged them to use a number of factors that would create the most favorable result in all communities nationwide and did in fact result in an increase in loan limits,” says Megan Booth, an NAR regulatory policy representative.

As a result of that increase, FHA loan limits will also be going up, because those limits are set as a percentage of the conforming limit. Starting in 2017, borrowers in high-cost areas will be able to get loans as high as $636,150, almost $11,000 more than what they can get this year. That increase is expected to make a big difference for households trying to buy in major metro areas like Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington.

Details of the new loan limits are covered in the latest Voice for Real Estate news video from NAR. Also covered are remarks by Reps. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) and Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) on why it’s crucial that lawmakers do no harm to housing next year should Congress take up tax reform and reform of the secondary mortgage market companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Watch all of the Voice for Real Estate episodes here.

Despite being on opposite sides of the aisle, both lawmakers said residential real estate is too important to the health of the U.S. economy for any changes to disrupt home sales. That means lawmakers must tread lightly as they look at whether long-time tax incentives for homeownership, like the mortgage interest deduction, should be touched. It also means any changes to Fannie and Freddie mustn’t reduce investor interest in mortgage-backed securities. “I think [low interest rates on 30-year, fixed rate loans] go away if we don’t have a government insurance program,” Sherman said at a meeting NAR hosted last week with S&P Global on the state of homeownership.

The video also includes remarks by NAR President Bill Brown on the nomination of neurosurgeon Ben Carson to be secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and what to expect in home sales in 2017.

—By Robert Freedman, REALTOR® Magazine

Is the Starter Home Coming Back?

Starter homes were largely viewed as a dying fad, but millennials are showing renewed interest. They believe the starter home may help turn them into a homeowner more quickly.

Read more: Fewer New Home Choices for First-Timers

Six in 10 millennials recently surveyed by Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices expressed an interest in purchasing a starter home, seeking a place that may require some TLC and that they could fix up over time. Such homes tend to be more affordable and may offer them the ability to build credit and become a homeowner sooner, the company’s latest Homeowner Sentiment Survey reveals.

Millennials say the top reason they’re staying on the fence in moving forward on a home purchase is because they’re struggling to save to buy their dream home. Of those holding out for their dream home, half of respondents cited the desire to go through the home-buying process only one and 37 percent said they don’t want the hassles of renovating an older home.

But others are giving a second look to homes that may require a little more work.

“Starter homes can provide first-time buyers with independence and an attainable investment,” says Gino Blefari, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices. “The process of buying one – while never easy – may not be as difficult as it’s perceived it to be.”

Overall, current and prospective homeowners -- particularly millennials -- are growing more optimistic about the direction of the housing market, but they are expressing some concerns too, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices’ latest Homeowner Sentiment Survey shows.

Sixty-six percent of current homeowners and 63 percent of prospective home buyers say they view the real estate market favorably. Millennials, ages 18 to 34, were the most optimistic generation with a 74 percent favorable view of the real estate market, the survey showed.

Still, while sentiment is high, consumers expressed some concerns, most notably about the direction of mortgage rates and how upticks may impact their ability to buy a home. Seventy-six percent of current homeowners and 79 percent of prospective homeowners cite increasing interest rates as a chief challenge affecting today’s housing market. Furthermore, 44 percent of homeowners and 70 percent of prospective buyers say they would feel anxious if mortgage rates were to rise. A majority of respondents said higher mortgage rates would make it difficult for them to buy a home.

“People feel good about real estate because housing is doing well in many markets across America,” says Gino Blefari, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices. “Although the idea of a rate hike can grab headlines and initially create some unease, it’s important to remember rate increases are often the mark of an improving, healthy U.S. economy. That is the case today.”

Source: Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices

November 2016 National Housing Trends eNewsletter

Angela Yglesias

Levesque Realty 

Cell: 805-490-4944   
Phone: 805-490-4944 

Housing Trends November 2016 View archives

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National market update

Existing-Home Sales Jump Again in October

WASHINGTON (November 22, 2016) — Existing-home sales ascended in October for the second straight month and eclipsed June's cyclical sales peak to become the highest annualized pace in nearly a decade, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions saw monthly and annual sales increases in October.



Read more

The 5 Real Estate Trends That Will Shape 2017

We won’t pretend to know everything that 2017 will bring—heck, 2016 sure surprised us—but we’re pretty certain there will be changes. A lot of them. And while the surprise triumph of Donald Trump in the presidential election won’t alter the fundamentals shaping the 2017 real estate market, its impact is already being felt.



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National housing indicators

Existing home sales (Oct)

5.60 millions units*

Existing home median price (Oct )

$232,200

Housing Starts (Oct)

1.323 millions units*

New home sales (Sept)

0.593 millions units*

*Seasonally adjusted annual rate. Source: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

National economic indicators

Home ownership

3rd Quarter 2016

+63.5%

3rd Quarter 2015

+63.7%

The homeownership rate of 63.5 percent was not statistically different from the third quarter 2015 rate (63.7 percent) and 0.6 percentage points (+/-0.4)* high than the second quarter 2016 rate(62.9 percent).

New home sales

Oct 2016

-1.9%

Sept 2016

+3.1%

Sales of new single-family houses in October 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 563,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.9 percent (±13.1%)* below the revised September rate of 574,000, but is 17.8 percent (±16.9%) above the October 2015 estimate of 478,000.

Source: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

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Existing Home Statistics

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Source: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

Housing Trends eNewsletter is filled with U.S. Census Bureau key market indicators, consumer videos, blogs, a real estate glossary, mortgage rates and calculators, consumer articles, real estate radio, realtor.com® local community reports and local and national real estate sales and price activity provided by local MLSs and the National Association of REALTORS®.

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