Monday, February 20, 2017

California housing market kicks off year higher in January

- Existing, single-family home sales totaled 420,100 in January on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 2.1 percent from December and 4.4 percent from January 2016.
- January’s statewide median home price was $489,580, down 3.8 percent from December and up 4.8 percent from January 2016.
- Statewide sales of condos fell 22.1 percent from December on a non-seasonally adjusted basis and rose 7.5 percent from January a year ago.
LOS ANGELES (Feb. 17) – California’s housing market started the year on a high note, following up on December’s strong showing with higher sales both on a monthly and yearly basis in January, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. 

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 420,100 units in January, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2017 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
The January figure was up 2.1 percent from the 411,430 level in December, and up 4.4 percent compared with home sales in January 2016 of a revised 402,220. The month-to-month gain was the first December-to-January increase since 2012, which is an encouraging sign.
“California’s housing market continues to be defined by the higher-priced, coastal markets and the less expensive, inland areas that still offer access to major employment centers,” said C.A.R. President Geoff McIntosh. “For example, eroding affordability and tight housing inventory are pushing buyers away from the core Bay Area markets of San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara and into less expensive bedroom communities, such as Contra Costa, Napa, and Solano. In Southern California, an influx of buyers from coastal employment areas into the Inland Empire drove healthy year-over-year sales in Riverside and San Bernardino.”
The median price of an existing, single-family detached California home fell below the $500,000 mark for the first time since March 2016, but home prices remain seasonably strong. The median price was down 3.8 percent from a revised $508,870 in December to $489,580 in January. The median sales price is the point at which half of homes sold for more and half sold for less; it is influenced by the types of homes selling, as well as a general change in values.
January’s median price was up 4.8 percent from the revised $467,160 recorded in January 2016, a slightly slower pace than the 5.6 percent increase averaged last year. Since 2011, price declines from December to January have usually ranged from -11.7 percent to as little as -4.6 percent, but January’s 3.8 percent monthly smaller price decline suggests that price pressure remains relatively robust and could translate into additional price growth as the spring and summer home-buying seasons near.
“January’s sales increase was likely boosted by rising interest rates, which have risen sharply since the election and have given buyers an incentive to get off the sidelines and close escrow before rates go higher,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Yet, future anticipated rate hikes will increase the cost of homebuying and could have an adverse effect on affordability and future home sales.”
Other key points from C.A.R.’s January 2017 resale housing report include:
• C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index, which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, rose to 3.7 months in January from 2.6 months in December. The index stood at 4.3 months in January 2016.
• New listings in pricey Bay Area counties, such as Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara rose significantly from December, a possible indication of sellers cashing out robust price appreciation experienced over the past few years.
• New statewide active listings continued to decline, dipping 0.3 percent from December and 10.5 percent from January 2016.
• The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home went up from 33 days in December to 37 days in January but was down from 44.2 days in January 2016.
• C.A.R.’s sales-to-list price ratio* was 98.1 of listing prices statewide in January, 98.2 percent in December and 97.8 in January 2016.
• The average price per square foot** for an existing, single-family home statewide was $240 in January, $242 in December, and $228 in January 2016.

• San Francisco County had the highest price per square foot in January at $841/sq. ft., followed by San Mateo ($723/sq. ft.), and Santa Clara ($567/sq. ft.). Counties with the lowest price per square foot in January included Del Norte ($124/sq. ft.), Kings ($125/sq. ft.), and Kern ($127/sq. ft.).
• After mortgage rates surged in the final few weeks of 2016, the 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 4.15 percent in January, down from 4.2 percent in December but was up from 3.87 percent in January 2016, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable-rate mortgage interest rates edged up in January to an average of 3.24 percent, from 3.23 percent in December and 2.98 percent in January 2016.
Graphics (click links to open):
Note:  The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state, and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data are not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales.  Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home.  The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower-end or the upper-end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold.  The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.
*Sales-to-list price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage.  A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.
**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property.  It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet.  C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 39 counties.
Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with 185,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

January 2016 County Sales and Price Activity(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
January-17Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family HomesSales
State/Region/CountyJan-17Dec-16 Jan-16 MTM% ChgYTY% ChgMTM% ChgYTY% Chg
CA SFH (SAAR)$489,580$508,870 $467,160r-3.8%4.8%2.1%4.4%
CA Condo/Townhomes$399,710$403,240 $380,110r-0.9%5.2%-22.1%7.5%
Los Angeles Metro Area$450,710$463,380 $434,000r-2.7%3.9%-31.2%-5.6%
Inland Empire$312,500$320,970 $291,920 -2.6%7.0%-18.4%8.6%
S.F. Bay Area$723,750$770,000r$690,000r-6.0%4.9%-30.7%-0.9%
          
S.F. Bay Area         
Alameda$755,000$755,000 $700,000r0.0%7.9%-32.9%-0.4%
Contra Costa$540,000$550,000 $500,000r-1.8%8.0%-26.0%10.4%
Marin$1,150,000$1,118,700 $952,500r2.8%20.7%-37.2%-3.6%
Napa$662,500$605,000 $584,500r9.5%13.3%-18.3%0.0%
San Francisco$1,250,000$1,315,210 $1,160,000r-5.0%7.8%-45.7%1.0%
San Mateo$1,150,000$1,332,500 $1,077,500 -13.7%6.7%-38.9%-11.6%
Santa Clara$927,500$965,000 $895,000 -3.9%3.6%-33.9%-7.8%
Solano$387,400$405,000 $354,000r-4.3%9.4%-22.3%6.8%
Sonoma$579,500$585,000 $550,000r-0.9%5.4%-23.3%-11.3%
Southern California         
Los Angeles$509,320$519,280r$480,950 -1.9%5.9%-26.3%6.7%
Orange $740,000$745,000 $699,900r-0.7%5.7%-26.8%-1.1%
Riverside $357,500$360,000 $328,000r-0.7%9.0%-20.6%9.9%
San Bernardino$242,650$253,460 $234,460 -4.3%3.5%-14.6%6.7%
San Diego$550,000$568,000 $530,000r-3.2%3.8%-25.3%6.8%
Ventura$606,150$627,580 $638,590 -3.4%-5.1%-29.7%-17.3%
Central Coast         
Monterey$572,500$497,000 $500,000 15.2%14.5%-24.9%2.5%
San Luis Obispo$536,000$559,000 $540,000r-4.1%-0.7%-14.2%13.4%
Santa Barbara$710,000$735,000 $748,000r-3.4%-5.1%-22.3%1.4%
Santa Cruz$800,000$805,000 $694,500 -0.6%15.2%-7.9%20.8%
Central Valley         
Fresno$235,000$238,220 $216,000r-1.4%8.8%-29.4%3.8%
Glenn$221,000$197,500 $159,975r11.9%38.1%6.7%-11.1%
Kern $215,000$220,000 $215,000 -2.3%0.0%-12.5%-7.7%
Kings $200,000$215,000 $190,000r-7.0%5.3%-14.1%65.9%
Madera$229,900$227,950 $227,500r0.9%1.1%-33.8%-2.2%
Merced$225,500$235,000 $193,950r-4.0%16.3%-11.6%2.4%
Placer $425,000$425,000 $405,000r0.0%4.9%-40.0%-10.2%
Sacramento$305,000$314,940 $281,000r-3.2%8.5%-27.2%14.1%
San Benito$550,000$475,000 $480,000 15.8%14.6%-21.1%-37.5%
San Joaquin$307,500$326,750 $290,000r-5.9%6.0%-32.3%-16.1%
Stanislaus$279,750$275,000 $245,000r1.7%14.2%-27.0%4.0%
Tulare$202,500$204,950 $195,000r-1.2%3.8%-29.8%28.0%
Other Calif. Counties         
Amador$295,000$272,500 $215,500r8.3%36.9%-22.7%13.3%
Butte $264,000$294,250 $260,000r-10.3%1.5%-69.4%-56.3%
Calaveras$285,000$288,000 $258,750r-1.0%10.1%-29.0%42.0%
Del Norte$218,500$232,250 $157,000r-5.9%39.2%-12.5%-26.3%
El Dorado $414,250$434,500 $405,000r-4.7%2.3%-36.0%-2.8%
Humboldt$296,500$295,000 $247,800r0.5%19.7%-21.0%16.9%
Lake $215,000$210,000 $235,000r2.4%-8.5%-24.4%15.7%
Mariposa$272,450$227,000 $279,000r20.0%-2.3%-30.0%-6.7%
Mendocino$417,500$366,000 $355,000r14.1%17.6%-17.0%25.8%
Mono$526,750$528,500 $475,000 -0.3%10.9%-42.9%-27.3%
Nevada$366,500$355,000 $339,500r3.2%8.0%11.1%45.2%
Plumas$300,250$230,000 $342,000r30.5%-12.2%-26.7%15.8%
Shasta$233,375$235,750 $226,250r-1.0%3.1%-34.4%22.9%
Siskiyou $239,000$255,000 $195,000r-6.3%22.6%-12.9%-12.9%
Sutter$251,995$253,500 $213,700r-0.6%17.9%-30.6%-3.8%
Tehama$210,000$204,250 $190,000r2.8%10.5%-20.6%42.1%
Tuolumne$279,450$253,375 $210,000r10.3%33.1%-28.6%-12.3%
Yolo$380,000$405,000 $345,000r-6.2%10.1%-18.7%18.9%
Yuba$250,000$247,450 $210,000r1.0%19.0%-16.2%-9.5%
r = revised

January 2016 County Unsold Inventory and Time on Market(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
January-17Unsold Inventory IndexMedian Time on Market
State/Region/CountyJan-17Dec-16 Jan-16 Jan-17Dec-16 Jan-16 
CA SFH (SAAR)3.72.6 4.3 37.333.0 44.2r
CA Condo/Townhomes3.22.2 3.8 32.029.6 40.7 
Los Angeles Metro Area4.13.0 5.5r46.642.9 57.3 
Inland Empire4.63.6 5.0r49.846.7 61.9 
S.F. Bay Area2.51.5 1.9r23.826.7 28.1 
           
S.F. Bay Area          
Alameda2.01.2 2.0 24.121.9 22.5 
Contra Costa2.21.6 2.5 24.623.9 24.3 
Marin3.71.9 2.8 47.746.2 45.5 
Napa4.53.6 4.1 79.651.3 65.1 
San Francisco2.20.9 2.3 37.731.0 33.9 
San Mateo2.31.1 1.9 24.321.7 22.1 
Santa Clara2.21.2 1.9 23.723.3 23.6 
Solano2.92.1 3.4 58.348.6 50.0 
Sonoma3.42.5 3.2 56.350.1 65.6 
Southern California          
Los Angeles3.62.6 4.3 40.835.1 51.2 
Orange 4.02.6 4.1 50.347.2 64.2 
Riverside 5.13.8 6.3 52.147.2 64.5 
San Bernardino3.83.2 4.8 46.145.7 57.0 
San Diego3.62.6 4.3 27.426.6 27.0 
Ventura4.43.3 4.8 61.265.9 72.2 
Central Coast          
Monterey4.93.5 4.7 39.932.2 51.5 
San Luis Obispo4.13.4 5.1 40.336.6 43.4 
Santa Barbara5.64.0 4.9 52.432.5 51.4 
Santa Cruz2.52.4 2.8 32.231.0 38.6 
Central Valley          
Fresno4.43.0 5.1 27.527.4 32.0 
Glenn4.54.9 3.1 91.052.8 24.7 
Kern4.33.6 4.8 32.629.7 41.0 
Kings 3.22.8 6.1 28.125.2 31.0 
Madera5.84.1 7.8 49.154.2 78.4 
Merced3.83.1 4.7 39.129.1 55.5 
Placer 3.31.8 3.5 26.527.0 27.5 
Sacramento2.21.6 3.0 24.424.0 26.6 
San Benito4.83.7 2.4 42.631.0 35.5 
San Joaquin3.22.2 3.1 27.926.5 28.9 
Stanislaus3.42.4 3.7 28.226.8 31.5 
Tulare5.23.2 6.4 31.828.1 43.3 
Other Counties in California          
Amador4.93.9 6.3 82.875.5 91.0 
Butte 4.02.4 3.9 42.726.2 55.7 
Calaveras5.54.3 8.1 84.646.4 86.8 
Del Norte8.27.1 6.7 124.6110.3 122.5 
El Dorado 3.02.6 4.7 53.154.4 53.8 
Humboldt4.02.8 4.9 38.329.2 41.2 
Lake 5.53.9 6.8 55.791.0 82.3 
Mariposa3.83.1 6.1 48.4100.7 98.3 
Mendocino6.45.5 10.2 123.173.7 112.8 
Mono11.36.8 NA 130.7129.7 134.1 
Nevada3.64.1 6.0 45.526.0 61.0 
Plumas8.26.7 10.0 132.3128.3 132.8 
Shasta5.03.4 7.7 41.228.7 51.9 
Siskiyou 7.36.8 7.3 82.849.1 78.4 
Sutter3.32.1 4.1 27.929.2 27.9 
Tehama6.45.4 9.0 75.580.3 82.8 
Tuolumne5.54.3 5.1 65.152.8 98.3 
Yolo2.61.8 3.0 31.622.4 31.5 
Yuba3.12.8 3.2 32.023.9 29.5 
r = revised
NA = not available

Mortgage Rates: Is It a 'Year Full of Surprises'?

Mortgage rates fell slightly for the second consecutive week, taking a path that many economists haven't expected.
"For the last 46 years, the 30-year mortgage rate has been almost perfectly correlated with the yield on the 10-year Treasury, but not this year," says Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac's chief economist. "From Dec. 29, 2016, through today, the 30-year mortgage rate fell 17 basis points to this week's reading of 4.15 percent. In contrast, the 10-year Treasury yield began and ended the same period at 2.49 percent. While we expect mortgage rates to fall into line with Treasury yields shortly, this just may be a year full of surprises."
Freddie Mac reported the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending Feb. 16:
  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.15 percent, with an average 0.5 point, dropping from last week's 4.17 percent average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 3.65 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.35 percent, with an average 0.5 point, falling from last week's 3.39 percent average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 2.95 percent.
  • 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 3.18 percent, with an average 0.4 point, falling from last week's 3.21 percent average. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.85 percent.
Source: Freddie Mac

Thursday, February 16, 2017

5 Signs That Traditional Retail Isn’t Dead

Is e-commerce destroying the retail sector in your market? Can traditional brick-and-mortar shops and big-box retailers survive in a turbulent market that is constantly adapting to technological advances and bold moves by companies like Amazon and Wal-Mart?
Shifts from brick-and-mortar locations to online vendors, the rise of omnichannel approaches that blend online shopping with traditional retail, consumer desire to find the lowest price at any cost, and heightened customer expectations for delivery have forced innovation and led to downsizing for traditional stores like Macy’s and JC Penney’s. Can brick-and-mortar weather these transitions?
These questions might matter more than you think. According to The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), 1-in-11 jobs are related to shopping centers and retail is the largest employer in more than half the states in the U.S.
“Retail is very healthy,” says Tom McGee, President and CEO of ICSC. Despite all of the upheaval, McGee is confident the downsizing of traditional anchor stores is merely a sign of adaptation, not a cause for panic. “More than 90% of sales still happen in a store,” says McGee, noting industry enthusiasm about what he sees as a blend of “bricks and clicks.”
Four commercial real estate experts told NAR’s Commercial Connections magazine about adaptation in their own markets, echoing McGee’s optimistic outlook:

  • “E-commerce can’t paint your nails, cut your hair, or serve you a burrito,” says Travis Carter, CCIM. “Consumers still need to see, touch, and feel those tangible goods,” Carter says, noting that the biggest change in retail he’s seen in his Greensboro market is visible in the dynamic of the shopping center tenant mix, which continues to shift towards businesses that provide services. Heightened competition in the retail sector has raised the stakes, even for national chains. “Retailers have more real estate options and consumers have many more options in retailers.”
  • “Retail is about connecting and forming loyalty to consumers,” says Barbara Tria. “They connect with the core product and that builds loyalty to the brand.” Tria is excited about the innovations between merchants she is observing in her Miami market. Because of e-commerce, she sees many retailers doubling down on engagement with their clientele, even partnering with other merchants in their trade areas, creating an exciting atmosphere of experiential retail.
  • “A decade ago developers would do speculative projects in hopes that tenants would come along,” says Ken Robberechts, CCIM. “You don’t see that as much in Chicago now. In general, developers communicate well with the community, organizations, and alderman in order to deliver the right tenant mix on a development.” Robberechts sees e-commerce really impacting retail in the inventory off of Main and Main. “Those mom and pop type startups may not want to be in the middle of the block to test their proof of concept as e-commerce provides an alternative avenue. That is where you’re seeing landlords having to get more creative on vacant space.”
  • “I don’t think it’s lip service to speak to the importance of experiential retail,” says John Propp, CCIM. “I can see the pendulum swinging back away from everything happening online.” Propp’s Denver market is in the midst of a commercial real estate boom unlike anything he can remember. He feels the last real impediment is the issue of sales tax. Purchases made online don’t typically include a state sales tax, a decision stemming back to a 1992 Supreme Court decision. “Once this is settled there will be even less conflict between the two.”

While no one can predict the future, it seems reports on the death of traditional retail are greatly exaggerated. Anchor stores continue to change, pivoting from big-box retailers to smaller service providers, medical facilities, restaurants, and multi-unit residential. National chains are downsizing and refocusing on personalization, catering to more specific clientele rather than trying to be everything to everyone. Omnichannel approaches and experiential retail continue to take root in all facets of the market, from e-commerce giants like Zappos to boutique boot shops in Memphis.
Source: "Pixels & Mortar: The Continuing Evolution of Retail ” Commercial Connections (Feb. 3, 2017)

The 10 Most Affordable Places to Live in U.S.

Home affordability is more than the price a buyer agrees to pay a seller. In a new study, SmartAsset factored in closing costs, real estate taxes, homeowner’s insurance, and mortgage rates for every county and city in the U.S. with a population of more than 5,000.
SmartAsset pinpointed the most affordable cities and counties in its analysis by considering the total housing costs on an average house that accounted for the smallest proportion of the median income.
The following 10 places ranked tops on SmartAsset’s list for affordability (listed below with average annual mortgage payment):
  1. Kermit, Texas: $2,014
  2. Federal Heights, Colo.: $1,613
  3. Pecos, Texas: $2,104
  4. Zephyrhills South, Fla.: $1,775
  5. Shamokin, Pa.: $1,631
  6. Blackwell, Okla.: $2,425
  7. Cusseta-Chattahoochee County, Ga.: $3,064
  8. Hartford City, Ind.: $2,746
  9. Fussels Corner, Fla.: $2,319
  10. Lovington, N.M.: $4,160
Source: “Most Affordable Places in America,” SmartAsset (2017)

Realtor in Thousand Oaks, Conejo Valley

I help people selling their homes get them sold quickly and almost always at 100% asking, even over in some markets. I save my real estate b...